Page 13 - parks-master-plan

Population Estimate and Projection

The Ohio Department of Development, Office of Strategic Research has created population projections for each Ohio county from 2005 to 2030. The population data is based on birth, death and migration rates, building permit data, household size and owner occupancy rates. The projections anticipate moderate growth (just more than 5 percent) for the MSA as a whole through the year 2030.

Estimates of population change between 2000 and 2005 indicate population growth in Dublin and the region is slowing.

Dublin’s population is expected to be 62,663 by

2030, an increase of 27,754 people from the 2005 estimate.

Table 2B presents the 2000 Census population through the 2030 population projections for Dublin, using different growth rate

assumptions. In reality, growth will depend in large part on annexation, housing market trends and migration rates. In that regard, a slower growth than the rate of 25 percent will be more appropriate as a long-term estimate of future population. A 10 percent growth rate every five years is a reasonable assumption that allows a fairly rapid pace of growth.

Therefore, for planning purposes, a future 2030 population of 62,663 persons will be assumed in this document.

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1970 1980 1990 2000 2005-06 1990-00

# change

1990-00 % change

2000-05 # change

2000-05 % change

Dublin 681 3855 16,366 31,392 38,909 15,026 91.8% 7,517 23.9%

Delaware 42,908 53,840 66,929 109,989 150,268 43,060 64.3% 40,279 36.6%

Franklin 833,249 869,132 961,437 1,068,978 1,090,771 107,541 11.2% 21,793 2.0%

Union 23,786 29,536 31,969 40,909 45,751 8,940 28.0% 4,842 11.8%

Columbus MSA 1,149,432 1,243,833 1,377,419 1,612,837 1,708,625 235,418 17.1% 95,788 5.9%

Sources: US Census Bureau, Mid-Ohio Regional Planning Commission, City of Dublin.

Note: Columbus MSA data for 2000-05 includes Delaware, Fairfield, Franklin, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Pickaway and Union counties.

Table 2A: The 1970 to 2000 Census population and percent change over the decades for the City of Dublin; Delaware, Franklin and Union Counties; and the Columbus Metropolitan Area.